ASM
Glacial Melting—The View Up Close
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Kathmandu has issued a statement on the recent controversy on the rate of glacial melting.
In 2007, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report called AR4. The report repeated a claim made by Professor Syed Hasnain in 1999, published in New Scientist magazine, in the UK, that glaciers in the Himalaya, would melt completely by 2035.
On 19 January, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, the panel's vice chairman, said this claim was wrong. Climate change sceptics have leapt on the IPCC's admission, claiming that it invalidates all climate science. But Van Ypersele said the mistake does not invalidate the case that man-made global warming is causing glacial melting. In fact, he says the constant checking and rechecking of IPCC reports indicates its facts and conclusions are trustworthy.
However, in its statement, ICIMOD notes that many of the inferences regarding glacial melting are based on terminus fluctuation or changes in glacial area, neither of which provides precise information on ice mass or volume change.
Measurements of glacial mass balance would provide direct and immediate evidence of glacier volume increase or decrease with annual resolution. But', says the ICIMOD, 'there are still no systematic measurements of glacial mass balance in the region, although there are promising signs that this is changing.
China is the only country in the region which has been conducting long-term mass balance studies of some glaciers and it has expressed the intention of extending these to more Himalayan glaciers in the near future. India has recently started to study several glaciers for regular mass balance measurements' the centre says. ICIMOD says a lack of good scientific data severely limits our ability to understand present changes or predict future impacts, which are a prerequisite for good decision-making.
Thus the Centre has been promoting development of baseline information related to environmental processes and their changes. In early 2002, ICIMOD initiated a regional inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes, based on desk research and analysis of maps, aerial photographs, and satellite images. Since then, partner institutions have continued this work and developed inventories at national scales.
ICIMOD is now focusing on assimilating existing information and national data and developing a regional database so that a regional monitoring system on the status of cryospheric elements like snow and glaciers can be put in place. Standardisation of methodologies has been given due emphasis to facilitate integration of the database. At present, ICIMOD is conducting research on critical glacial lakes and is promoting the organisation of mass balance measurements in the region.
Based on the analyses we have been doing, we can state that the majority of glaciers in the region are in a general condition of retreat, although with some regional differences. Small glaciers below 5000 metre above sea level will probably disappear by the end of the century, whereas larger glaciers above this level will still exist but be smaller.
But ICIMOD says critics of the IPCC should take little comfort from its error, warning of serious consequences in the downstream river basins. It urges more investment in measuring and understanding the processes at work. 'In this context, the Indian government has taken a decision to establish a specialised glacier research centre. Similarly, the concept of the Third Pole Environment initiated by the Chinese Academy of Sciences will have a positive impact on minimising the gaps in our basic understanding.
ICIMOD is determined to contribute to developing better understanding of basic environmental processes, in particular climate change, glacial melting, and livelihoods impacts downstream, and highly commends these recent efforts made by our member countries.
