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A new report into the effects of climate change is predicting that the worst affected people will be the poor, especially the poor living in the major river deltas of Asia.

The glaciers that feed the rivers of the Himalayas in turn feed million of people.

Up to now, climate change research and negotiations have focused almost exclusively on the imperative of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is clear that emissions reduction efforts have been ‘too little, too late’, the report says. This means that the challenges and politics of adaptation are joining those of mitigation at the centre of policy debate.

The report predicts that vast human migrations – on a scale not previously experienced – will occur this century. The report, In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Displacement and Migration, was written by researchers at Columbia University's International Earth Science Information Network, the United Nations University, and CARE International.

In Search of Shelter documents how climate change is already causing people to leave their homes. It also details some of the specific ways displacement may occur over the next decades. It draws on empirical evidence from a new survey of every continent, with original maps created by CIESIN that pinpoint potential locations of critical displacements.

The report says melting glaciers will affect agricultural systems throughout Asia and contribute to the risk of flooding. Natural disasters will continue to cause short term migration, while the breakdown of ecosystem-dependent livelihoods—such as subsistence herding, farming and fishing—will cause long term migration.

Developing countries will be most vulnerable to migration and displacement and have less capacity to implement adaptation measures. A potential downward spiral – triggered by the resulting ecological degradation and breakdown of social structures –could ensue. This will in turn lead to political instability, which will further exacerbate population displacement.

The report calls for a view that sees climate-related migration and displacement as global in nature, not simply as isolated local crises. It aims to inform critical policy making by presenting a comprehensive discussion of the linkages between environmental change, displacement and migration.

ASM Newsletter is distributed by e-mail every week. It reports on events in the spatial industry in Asia and events outside the region which will impact on Asia.