ASM
Fighting Global Warming, Securing Sovereignty
Global warming is one of the most significant issues facing the world. The United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC), held in Bali last year, is just one indication of how seriously the problem is being taken.
It is most certainly important for the future of our civilisation and for the economic advancement of mankind. This article deals with its impact on a little discussed issue: changes to national sovereignty caused by sea level rise and the ramifications for small islands and maritime boundaries.
The UN says that during the 20th century, the global temperature increased by 0.74°C. UN scientists say that if carbon dioxide concentrations are stabilised at 550 ppm, the average warming will likely be in the range of 2-4.5°C.
One impact of higher temperatures is the melting of polar ice. This contributed to a sea level rise of 17 cm during the 20th century. The UN estimates that sea level will rise 28-58 cm by the end of this century.
A serious consequence of rising sea levels is the submergence of small islands. Low-lying South Pacific nations like Kiribati, and Vanuatu, for example, will disappear.
Meanwhile, Indonesia is predicted to lose around 2000 islands by 2030. This might seem a small matter; Indonesia is an archipelagic state of more than 17,000 islands. However, 92 of these are small islands of great strategic value, as noted in President Decree 78/2005.
They form the basic reference points for measuring maritime jurisdiction including definitions of the territorial sea, contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.
The baselines are used to delimit maritime boundaries with ten neighbouring states: India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Australia and East Timor.
There is deep uncertainty about this. We don’t know how much the sea level will change. We don’t know the exact height of the islands. But the potential is obvious.
Submergence of small outer islands will change baselines, which will alter the status and extent of Indonesia’s maritime area.
We need to be clear of some matters to avoid misunderstanding. For example, we should understand the definition of an island. According to Article 121 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), an island is naturally formed, surrounded by water and above sea level during high tide.
One implication of this is that without accurate height data (to centimetre level), we cannot tell how many islands are affected. It is even difficult to tell which objects are island and which are not.
A rise in sea level will change coastlines and, ultimately, baselines. This can alter the extent of maritime claims but will not change the already agreed maritime boundaries. Under Article 62 (2)(a) of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, boundary treaties are excluded from the rule that a party to a treaty may invoke ‘a fundamental change in circumstances’ as a ground for terminating a treaty.
In addition, the 1978 Vienna Convention on Succession of States in Respect of Treaties also provides that a change of states does not affect a boundary established by a treaty.
In other words, global warming will not change maritime boundaries that are already established, but it will affect boundaries that are yet to be settled.
